In the dramatic red rock canyons of the Colorado River, young Diné citizens Aniston Hanks, 20, and Shauna Belone, 21, found themselves immersed in a landscape deeply connected to their heritage, participating in The Nature Conservancy’s NATURE Program. For Hanks, wading in the river brought to mind the Little Colorado River, a sacred waterway for her family, reflecting a profound Diné belief that water is a relative, integral to their very existence. Their shared experience underscores the intricate relationship between Indigenous communities and the vital Colorado River system, a relationship now being reshaped by evolving federal water management strategies amid a historic drought.

Hanks, residing in the Lower Basin of Arizona, and Belone, from Naschitti, New Mexico, in the Upper Basin, illustrate the geographic and jurisdictional complexities of the Colorado River. Their homeland, the Navajo Nation, spans both basins, highlighting how artificial boundaries can intersect with a shared natural resource. These divisions have become increasingly significant as the federal government introduces new operating guidelines for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the river’s two largest reservoirs, grappling with a severe, multi-decade megadrought.

The U.S. Department of the Interior, through the Bureau of Reclamation, has finalized its environmental review and issued a record of decision outlining operating guidelines for 2027 and 2028, which commenced on October 1. This decision establishes a framework for managing the river through 2036, allowing for adjustments based on evolving reservoir levels, snowpack runoff, and ongoing negotiations among the seven basin states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. While a process has been set, the long-term dispute over how to equitably share dwindling water resources among these states remains unresolved. Celene Hawkins, Colorado River Program Director for The Nature Conservancy, described the Bureau of Reclamation’s review as a crucial step, providing a decade-long planning analysis and setting the stage for operating plans to be revisited every two years, unless the basin states reach a consensus on a negotiated solution.

The immediate impact of these new guidelines is significant. After 26 years of persistent drought, Lakes Powell and Mead hold less water than at any point since Lake Powell began filling in 1963. The initial operating plan prioritizes maintaining Lake Powell at or above 3,510 feet to ensure the dam’s continued operational reliability. Consequently, Arizona, California, and Nevada are collectively required to reduce their water diversions by 1.25 million acre-feet annually over the next two years. Under a proposed sharing agreement among these Lower Basin states, Arizona would absorb the largest reduction of 760,000 acre-feet, followed by California with 440,000 acre-feet, and Nevada with 50,000 acre-feet. Furthermore, the Lower Basin plan encourages water users to voluntarily conserve and store an additional 700,000 acre-feet during this period. The Upper Basin, while not facing a comparable fixed reduction, is expected to negotiate coordinated operations with Lower Basin states and tribes if additional water is needed to protect Glen Canyon Dam.

A less visible, yet critical, aspect of the federal decision involves a federally controlled pool of water. This reserve can be utilized to fulfill federal delivery or firming obligations stipulated in congressionally approved Indian water-rights settlements, provide partial offsets for certain tribal shortages, or safeguard federal infrastructure. However, the record of decision specifies that this tribal-firming provision applies to a select group of Lower Basin tribes with settlements that include federal firming commitments, such as the Gila River Indian Community. Notably, the Navajo Nation is not among these tribes. Hawkins emphasized that the repercussions of this post-2026 framework will vary considerably among tribal nations, given their diverse settlements, legal standing, and water supply arrangements across the basin. She explained that some Arizona tribes depend on the Central Arizona Project, while others draw directly from the Colorado River’s main stem, and that tribal water settlements and legal positions differ significantly throughout the region.

The distinction between different types of tribal water rights is central to understanding the framework’s varied impacts. Some tribes hold explicitly quantified, senior water rights directly from the Colorado River. Others rely on water delivered through federal infrastructure as part of settlement agreements. A third group possesses unquantified rights or legally recognized water entitlements that they cannot fully utilize due to a lack of necessary infrastructure. The Interior Department’s record of decision establishes initial operating rules but does not resolve the underlying legal, infrastructural, and water-access challenges that tribal officials have raised throughout the federal environmental review process.

Crystal Tulley-Cordova, principal hydrologist with the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources and a Diné citizen, articulates the core issue as an "imbalance between paper water versus wet water." She observes the tangible effects of reduced water availability across the Navajo Nation, citing diminished snowpack, altered snowmelt runoff affecting local creeks, and changes in plant growth, such as the wild tea green thread. Shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns, leading to fewer predictable summer showers and, at times, intense flooding, further illustrate the changing climate. Bidtah Becker, chief legal counsel for the Navajo Nation Office of the President and Vice President and a member of the Navajo Nation Water Rights Commission, underscores that "Mother Nature is in charge here," while acknowledging that human systems have spent over a century creating complex rules for dividing natural resources. The Navajo Nation Water Rights Commission is actively working to settle the Nation’s water rights claims, including through the proposed Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement Act of 2025, which addresses water access in the Lower Basin.

The historical context of water management on the Colorado River is critical. The 1922 Colorado River Compact, which divided the river into Upper and Lower Basins, formed the bedrock of the "Law of the River," a complex web of laws, agreements, and court decisions. However, tribal nations were not sovereignly involved in the compact’s creation. Peter Ortego, president of Acadian Desert Consulting and former general counsel for the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, notes that Indigenous peoples "weren’t at the table 100 years ago" and were not invited to participate. The Navajo Nation’s situation exemplifies the challenges posed by these century-old boundaries under the new post-2026 rules. Under the proposed Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement, the Navajo Nation would be allocated approximately 47,000 acre-feet of Upper Basin Colorado River water for communities in Arizona. However, some of these communities lie south of the legal boundary separating the basins. Becker highlights the disjuncture, stating, "We didn’t draw those lines; we didn’t impose the system on ourselves."

The distinction between quantified and unquantified water rights further complicates matters. The post-2026 rules do not directly alter the Navajo Nation’s rights under the proposed settlement, as Arizona’s allocation for the Nation remains contingent on congressional approval. Until then, Becker explains, the 47,000 acre-feet is more of a plan than actual "wet water." Tulley-Cordova clarifies that quantified and decreed rights allow a specific volume of tribal water to be accounted for within a state’s overall Colorado River allocation. Unquantified rights, she notes, are "not really included into the management framework." Importantly, the post-2026 framework does not resolve these claims, nor does it determine the future of ongoing projects like the Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project, which is designed to provide a long-term water supply to over 250,000 people in New Mexico using San Juan River water secured through the Navajo Nation San Juan River Basin Water Rights Settlement. Tulley-Cordova emphasizes that the framework’s focus is primarily on reservoir operations, including water storage and releases.

The experiences of tribal nations concerning the Colorado River are far from uniform. As Bidtah Becker states, "We are not a monolith," underscoring the wide variations in how Colorado River management decisions affect tribes based on the quantification of their water rights and their specific water usage. For the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, the current situation highlights the critical difference between holding a water right and possessing the infrastructure to fully exercise it. The tribe has settled its water rights in Colorado, and water stored in Lake Nighthorse, near Durango, must flow through New Mexico before reaching only a small portion of the reservation. Ortego points out that roughly 16,000 acre-feet of water, which the tribe currently cannot utilize, bypasses the reservation annually. This presents a dilemma during times of scarcity: developing this water would allow the tribe to assert its rights, while leaving it in the system could benefit an already stressed Colorado River. Ortego suggests that the tribe should either receive the necessary infrastructure to use its water or be compensated for deferring its development. "None of us is in the exact same situation," he remarks of the tribes in the Upper Basin.

The Colorado River Indian Tribes (CRIT), a federally recognized tribe whose reservation straddles Arizona and California along the Colorado River, operates under a different legal framework. Their rights are governed by a 1963 U.S. Supreme Court decree in Arizona v. California, which CRIT Chairwoman Amelia Flores describes as the most senior tribal water rights in the Lower Basin, dating back to 1865. CRIT had previously opposed language in earlier federal proposals that tribal leaders believed could impose inequitable reductions on their allocation. In a statement following the record of decision, CRIT confirmed that Reclamation had affirmed its commitment to upholding the court decree and would not impose such reductions. "The efforts of CRIT have made a difference," Flores stated, noting the impact of numerous discussions between CRIT’s Tribal Council and the Bureau of Reclamation.

The record of decision also mandates the formal inclusion of tribal nations, including CRIT, in a basin-wide consultation structure. CRIT leaders welcomed this commitment but emphasized their continued engagement as Reclamation develops successive two-year operating guidelines, particularly if worsening reservoir conditions necessitate further reductions in water supplies for central Arizona. "Given the critical status of the river, tribal consultation is mandatory in every discussion and decision regarding the Colorado River," CRIT Councilmember Raeanne Patch stated. Celene Hawkins of The Nature Conservancy observes that tribal nations are contributing innovative solutions to discussions about the river’s future, though they often lack the same level of access to decision-making tables as their state and federal counterparts. Peter Ortego believes that increased tribal participation in the post-2026 framework could significantly bolster tribal sovereignty and enhance their influence over future operating decisions. "When the tribes have the power and the ability to put their perspective on the table, and other people actually listen to it and actually respond to it in a positive way," he concluded, "that’s the best way tribes can exercise their sovereignty."

Near Moab, far upstream from Lee Ferry, Arizona, the designated legal dividing point between the Upper and Lower Basins, the abstract boundary felt nonexistent. For Aniston Hanks, the challenge of living with a diminishing river returned to a fundamental principle: "There has to be a balance," she reflected, standing in the water, a vital resource for over 40 million people. "You walk with beauty, with nature, not against it."