Atmospheric researcher Anthony Bernal Ayala meticulously slices hailstones in a specialized cold laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, where the indoor temperature is maintained at a frigid minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 20 degrees Celsius). Each cut reveals distinct layers of ice, analogous to the growth rings of a tree. These frozen strata, varying in clarity and thickness, serve as a historical record of the atmospheric conditions present during the hailstone’s formation. Clear layers signify slow freezing, allowing ice crystals to form with fewer trapped air bubbles, while cloudy layers indicate rapid freezing, which entraps more air and results in a more opaque appearance. Bernal Ayala then proceeds to analyze the intricate crystalline structures, embedded particles, and isotopic signatures preserved within these layers. "All that information can tell you a wonderful story of how the hailstone was growing, but nobody—not until now—was able to tap into that history," explained Bernal Ayala, an atmospheric researcher affiliated with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, part of the JANUS Research Group.

Bernal Ayala’s groundbreaking work, conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is a pivotal component of a significant, long-term initiative aimed at understanding one of the most economically damaging weather phenomena. The ultimate goal of this research is to enhance protections for lives and property against the destructive impact of hailstones, which can severely damage roofs, decimate crops, and leave vehicles pockmarked.

Recent years have seen a dramatic escalation in the financial toll of severe thunderstorms. According to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, annual losses from these events in the United States exceeded $50 billion between 2023 and 2025, more than doubling the figures from just a decade prior. Hail is identified as the primary culprit for a substantial portion of this damage, accounting for an estimated 60% to 80% of the total losses. In Colorado, a state particularly vulnerable to hailstorms, hail has become the leading driver of escalating insurance premiums, surpassing even wildfire risks. Compounding these concerns, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of larger, more damaging hailstones. "It’s going to just keep getting costlier and costlier," Bernal Ayala cautioned.

Even fundamental questions about hail formation and behavior have historically been difficult to address, but a renewed focus on hail research, including the first major U.S. field campaign dedicated to hail study in over four decades, is poised to change this landscape. The "In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail In the Plains" (ICECHIP) initiative, launched with $11 million in funding from the National Science Foundation in 2024, aims to significantly improve weather forecasting, refine warning systems for greater precision, and empower communities to better prepare for hail events. This substantial investment was secured just prior to significant budget reductions impacting the foundation in 2025.

During a six-week period in the spring of 2025, approximately 100 scientists and university students embarked on an ambitious chase across the Central Plains and Front Range, extending from the Canadian to the Mexican border. Utilizing advanced radar trucks to track storm systems and drones for aerial reconnaissance, the team gathered an unprecedented volume of data. Researchers employed high-speed cameras to meticulously photograph hailstones, deployed a specialized instrument called a disdrometer to measure their impact, and used foam pads to record hail imprints, thereby determining their distribution and size. Additional efforts involved capturing hailstones in specialized funnels and analyzing their structural integrity by crushing them. Scientists from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also contributed by releasing golf ball-sized sensors via balloons into storm clouds, which collected vital data on their velocity, ice accretion rates, and recorded the impacts of water droplets and hailstones through an integrated microphone. "This has really been the first time where we’ve been able to do a real comprehensive look at hail on the ground, hail aloft, the storm itself, the environment around the storm—just everything all at once," stated Becky Adams-Selin, the lead investigator for ICECHIP and a principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, part of the JANUS Research Group.

The collected samples from the ICECHIP campaign were carefully packed into 26 cooler-sized boxes and transported to NCAR in Boulder, Colorado. This globally recognized center for atmospheric and climate research has a long history of investigating hail, dating back to the 1970s when a major U.S. study examined Soviet claims of hail suppression technology. Researchers note that there are few comparable U.S. facilities, and the alternative plan for storing the ICECHIP samples involved securing a walk-in freezer from a fast-food establishment.

However, the future of NCAR itself has become uncertain. In late 2025, the Trump administration announced plans to dissolve the center and relocate its operations. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages NCAR, initiated legal action in March, alleging that the administration’s move is politically motivated, intended as retaliation against Colorado for its mail-in voting system and Governor Jared Polis’s refusal to release Tina Peters, a former Mesa County clerk imprisoned for election security breaches. A federal judge has since issued a temporary injunction blocking the administration’s efforts to dismantle NCAR, with the government mandated to respond to the lawsuit by September 30th. "I can’t even quantify the impact that it would have to our community if we lost NCAR," remarked Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University and a principal ICECHIP investigator. "They are the beating heart."

Previous scientific research has already indicated that climate change will significantly influence hail patterns. While warmer ambient temperatures might cause smaller hailstones to melt before reaching the ground, they can also fuel stronger updrafts within thunderstorms. These more powerful updrafts can keep hailstones suspended in the atmosphere for extended periods, allowing them to grow larger and increasing the likelihood of the most destructive hail events. A striking example of this trend occurred in Yuma County, Colorado, in 2023, where a hailstone measuring over 5 inches in diameter was recovered, setting a new record. In that same year, Colorado recorded 176 reports of hail 2 inches or greater in size, more than double the previous record of 91 reports set in 2018, according to the Colorado Climate Center.

Scientists acknowledge the complexity in disentangling the impact of increased large hail occurrences from the proliferation of development in hail-prone regions. The phenomenon of escalating insured losses due to the expansion of human infrastructure into areas susceptible to natural hazards has been termed the "expanding bull’s-eye effect." Gensini points to the significant development boom east of the Front Range, particularly along Colorado’s Interstate 25 corridor, which has experienced rapid population growth in recent decades. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the population of the Fort Collins metropolitan area alone has doubled since 1990, now exceeding approximately 375,000 residents. This pattern of previously rural or open land becoming densely populated and increasingly valuable is occurring across the Western United States, transforming these areas into more susceptible and costly targets for hail damage. "Colorado is the poster child for what I expect the next 25 years to look like for hail," Gensini stated.

In response to the escalating threat, Fort Collins became one of the first cities to implement specific roofing requirements for new construction and renovations in 2019. Marcus Coldiron, the city’s chief building official, explained that these measures were partly a reaction to the significant volume of damaged shingles and roofing materials sent to landfills following a catastrophic hailstorm in 2018. While the long-term effectiveness of these requirements remains under evaluation, Coldiron noted a decrease in permits issued for roof replacements and a corresponding reduction in shingles destined for disposal. However, Fort Collins has not yet experienced another hailstorm of the severity seen in 2018. Consequently, a growing number of communities along the Front Range are incorporating impact-resistant shingles into their building codes. Furthermore, Colorado legislators recently enacted a law to provide grants for residents who install more resilient roofing materials.

The ICECHIP research team is also actively investigating how to enhance building materials to better withstand the increasing frequency of billion-dollar losses from single storm events. "The dollars are simply piling up so fast," observed Ian Giammanco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety and a key partner in the ICECHIP project. "We’re still trying to understand how do we get the best materials onto roofs, onto people’s homes, onto businesses to actually start shaving off these losses."