In the heart of Utah’s dramatic red rock canyons, where the Colorado River carves its ancient path, 20-year-old Aniston Hanks, a Diné citizen, stood immersed in the cool water, while her friend Shauna Belone, 21, sat on the riverbank. Both young women are enrolled in The Nature Conservancy’s NATURE Program (Native American Tribes Upholding Restoration and Education), a summer initiative designed to deepen understanding of water, land, plant life, and conservation across the vast Colorado Plateau. For Hanks, who hails from Cameron, Arizona, the experience of being in the Colorado River resonated deeply, evoking memories of the Little Colorado River, a sacred waterway for her family. "We think of it as a relative," Hanks explained, her voice carrying the weight of ancestral reverence for water, including the vital tributaries that feed the mighty Colorado. "We’re born for water."

This profound connection to water, however, exists alongside a complex legal and administrative reality. Hanks and Belone, despite their shared Diné heritage and proximity, reside on opposite sides of an invisible boundary that divides the Colorado River into its Upper and Lower Basins. Hanks lives in the Lower Basin state of Arizona, while Belone, from Naschitti, New Mexico, resides in the Upper Basin. Their ancestral homeland, the Navajo Nation, a sprawling 27,000-square-mile territory, itself straddles these very basin lines, underscoring the intricate relationship between tribal lands and the river’s management. These basin divisions are not merely geographical markers; they hold significant weight as the federal government implements new operational guidelines for the Colorado River’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, grappling with a persistent 26-year megadrought that has severely depleted water levels.

The federal decision concerning these crucial reservoirs was unveiled in two distinct phases. The Bureau of Reclamation concluded its extensive environmental review on July 31, laying the groundwork for subsequent actions. Then, on August 21, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum formally signed a record of decision, initiating the first set of operating guidelines set to govern the reservoirs through 2028, with new rules taking effect on October 1. While this decision establishes a procedural framework for managing the river’s flow, it crucially does not resolve the larger, long-standing dispute among the seven Colorado River Basin states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. These states have yet to reach a consensus on a permanent formula for sharing water during times of scarcity. In response, the Department of the Interior has put forth a framework extending through 2036, allowing federal managers to re-evaluate and adjust reservoir operations at more frequent intervals, adapting to fluctuating reservoir levels, snowpack runoff, and ongoing negotiations.

Celene Hawkins, Colorado River Program Director for The Nature Conservancy, characterized the Bureau of Reclamation’s environmental review as a vital planning analysis that informs future decisions. "They’ve essentially developed a 10-year framework for the basin," Hawkins stated, noting that operating plans will be revisited every two years unless the basin states arrive at a mutually agreed-upon solution. This built-in flexibility is already being put to the test. After more than two decades of drought, Lake Powell and Lake Mead now hold less water collectively than at any point since Lake Powell began filling in 1963. For the initial operating period, Reclamation has announced adjustments to water releases from Glen Canyon Dam, aiming to maintain Lake Powell at or above 3,510 feet, an elevation deemed critical for the dam’s continued operational reliability.

Under these new directives, Arizona, California, and Nevada are collectively required to reduce their water diversions from the river by 1.25 million acre-feet annually over the next two years. The specific distribution of this reduction among the three states hinges on whether they finalize their proposed sharing agreement, which allocates a 760,000-acre-foot reduction to Arizona, 440,000 acre-feet to California, and 50,000 acre-feet to Nevada. The Lower Basin plan also encourages water users to voluntarily conserve and store an additional 700,000 acre-feet during this period. Notably, the Upper Basin states were not assigned a comparable fixed reduction; instead, they and associated tribes are empowered to negotiate coordinated operations at Flaming Gorge, Aspinall, and Navajo reservoirs, in consultation with Lower Basin states and tribes, should additional water be necessary to protect Glen Canyon Dam.

A less publicized but significant aspect of the Interior Department’s decision involves a federally managed water pool. Reclamation has stated this pool could be utilized to fulfill federal delivery obligations or "firming" promises embedded in congressionally approved Indian water-rights settlements, thereby partially offsetting certain tribal shortages or safeguarding federal infrastructure. The record of decision specifies that this tribal-firming provision applies to a select group of Lower Basin tribes whose settlements include federal firming commitments, such as the Gila River Indian Community. The Navajo Nation is not among these designated tribes. Hawkins further elaborated that the impact of the post-2026 framework will differ considerably among tribal nations due to variations in their settlements, legal standing, and water resource availability across the basin.

When asked about the potential effects of the post-2026 framework on tribal nations, Hawkins emphasized the lack of a uniform answer. "I don’t think there’s an easy or a single answer because I think different tribal nations in the basin are going to be affected differently," she explained. She highlighted that some Arizona tribes depend on the Central Arizona Project for their water, while others draw directly from the Colorado River’s main stem, and that tribal water settlements and legal frameworks are not consistent throughout the region. This distinction is fundamental to understanding the framework’s varied implications. Some tribes possess quantified, senior water rights directly from the Colorado River. Others rely on water delivered through federal infrastructure as part of their settlement agreements. A third group holds unquantified rights or legally recognized water that they are currently unable to fully utilize due to a lack of necessary infrastructure. While the Interior’s record of decision establishes the initial operating rules, it does not definitively resolve the complex legal, infrastructure, and water-access challenges that tribal officials articulated during the federal environmental review process.

A River Divided on Paper

For Crystal Tulley-Cordova, principal hydrologist with the Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources and a Diné citizen, the core issue can be distilled into a stark reality: "There is an imbalance between paper water versus wet water." She observed that the consequences of diminishing water resources are already palpable across the Navajo Nation. Declining snowpack has led to reduced snowmelt runoff, impacting local creeks and altering the growth patterns of native plants, such as the green thread herb traditionally gathered for tea. Furthermore, monsoon rainfall patterns have shifted, resulting in fewer predictable summer showers and, at times, intense downpours that trigger flooding. "Ultimately, Mother Nature is in charge here," commented Bidtah Becker, chief legal counsel for the Navajo Nation Office of the President and Vice President and a member of the Navajo Nation Water Rights Commission. This commission is tasked with navigating and settling the Navajo Nation’s water-rights claims across its expansive lands, including efforts in the Lower Basin through the proposed Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement Act of 2025.

Despite the natural forces at play, human endeavors over the past century have shaped the rules governing the allocation of this precious resource. The seminal 1922 Colorado River Compact, which divided the river into Upper and Lower Basins, became a foundational element of the "Law of the River," a complex body of laws, legal agreements, and court decisions. Critically, tribal nations were not sovereignly involved in the creation of this compact. "The Indians were not at the table 100 years ago," stated Peter Ortego, president of Acadian Desert Consulting and a former longtime general counsel for the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe. "They weren’t invited." The Navajo Nation’s situation serves as a particularly illustrative example of how these century-old boundaries continue to influence contemporary water management under the post-2026 rules.

Under the terms of the proposed Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement, the Navajo Nation is slated to receive approximately 47,000 acre-feet of Upper Basin Colorado River water designated for communities within Arizona. However, some of these communities are geographically located south of the legal demarcation line separating the basins. "We didn’t draw those lines," Becker added, emphasizing the externally imposed nature of these boundaries. "We didn’t impose the system on ourselves." This jurisdictional complexity is further compounded by the fact that not all tribal water rights have been legally quantified. The post-2026 rules do not directly alter the Navajo Nation’s water rights under the proposed settlement, primarily because the Nation has not yet secured full congressional approval for its Colorado River settlement in Arizona. Until such approval is granted, the 47,000 acre-feet remains more of a projected allocation than a tangible supply, according to Becker. Tulley-Cordova further clarified that quantified and decreed rights allow a specific volume of tribal water to be accounted for within a state’s overall allocation of Colorado River water. In contrast, unquantified rights are "not really included into the management framework." This does not imply that the post-2026 framework resolves these outstanding claims, nor does it predetermine the future of ongoing projects like the Navajo-Gallup Water Supply Project. Largely funded by Reclamation, this project aims to establish a long-term water supply for over 250,000 people in New Mexico, utilizing San Juan River water secured through the Navajo Nation San Juan River Basin Water Rights Settlement. Tulley-Cordova noted that the current framework primarily focuses on reservoir operations, dictating what water is retained and released.

Different Rights, Same River

The experience of tribal nations in relation to the Colorado River is far from uniform. "We are not a monolith," Becker asserted, underscoring that the repercussions of Colorado River management decisions vary significantly among tribes, contingent upon the quantification of their water rights and their specific methods of water utilization. For the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe, the current situation highlights the critical difference between possessing a water right and having the necessary infrastructure to fully exercise that right. The tribe has successfully settled its water rights within Colorado. Ortego also pointed to water stored in Lake Nighthorse near Durango, Colorado, which must travel through New Mexico before reaching only a small fraction of the reservation. Approximately 16,000 acre-feet of water, which the tribe is currently unable to utilize, flows past the reservation annually, he reported. This presents a significant dilemma during periods of scarcity: developing this water would enable the tribe to assert its rights, while leaving it within the system could potentially benefit an already strained Colorado River. Ortego proposed that the tribe should either receive the necessary infrastructure to access its water or be compensated for deferring its development. "None of us is in the exact same situation," Ortego stated, referring to the diverse circumstances of tribes in the Upper Basin.

The Colorado River Indian Tribes (CRIT), a federally recognized tribe whose reservation spans the Colorado River in Arizona and California, approach the current situation from a distinct legal vantage point. CRIT’s water rights are governed by a 1963 U.S. Supreme Court decree in Arizona v. California, which CRIT Chairwoman Amelia Flores described as representing the most senior tribal water rights in the Lower Basin, dating back to 1865. CRIT had previously voiced strong opposition to language in earlier federal proposals that tribal leaders contended could have imposed impermissible reductions on its allocated water. In a statement released on August 21, CRIT indicated that Reclamation had affirmed its commitment to adhering to the court decree and would not implement such reductions. "The efforts of CRIT have made a difference," Flores stated in the release. "The numerous meetings and discussions between CRIT’s Tribal Council and the Bureau of Reclamation have clearly had an impact." The record of decision also mandates the formal inclusion of tribal nations, including CRIT, in a basin-wide consultation structure. CRIT leaders welcomed this commitment but stressed their continued engagement as Reclamation develops subsequent two-year operating guidelines, particularly if deteriorating reservoir conditions necessitate further reductions in water supplies for central Arizona. "Given the critical status of the river, tribal consultation is mandatory in every discussion and decision regarding the Colorado River," CRIT Councilmember Raeanne Patch remarked in the statement.

Celene Hawkins of The Nature Conservancy noted that tribal nations are actively contributing innovative ideas to discussions about the Colorado River’s future, although they "don’t have the same level of access to decision-making tables as their state and federal counterparts." Peter Ortego suggested that increased tribal participation in the post-2026 framework could bolster tribal sovereignty and enhance their influence over future operational decisions. "When the tribes have the power and the ability to put their perspective on the table, and other people actually listen to it and actually respond to it in a positive way," he concluded, "that’s the best way tribes can exercise their sovereignty."

Back along the Colorado River near Moab, far upstream of Lee Ferry, Arizona, the legally defined boundary between the Upper and Lower Basins was imperceptible. For Aniston Hanks, the challenge of coexisting with a river that carries less water than in previous generations distilled into a fundamental principle. "There has to be a balance," she reflected, standing knee-deep in the river, a vital artery supplying resources to over 40 million people. "You walk with beauty, with nature, not against it."