Inside a specialized cold laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, where temperatures are maintained at a biting minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 20 degrees Celsius), atmospheric researcher Anthony Bernal Ayala meticulously slices hailstones with a band saw, revealing intricate layers of ice that mirror the growth rings of a tree. These frozen strata, varying in clarity and thickness, serve as a historical record of the conditions under which each hailstone formed: a clear layer indicates slow freezing, while a cloudy layer signifies rapid freezing that trapped air bubbles. Bernal Ayala then proceeds to analyze the crystalline structures, embedded particles, and isotopic signatures preserved within these layers, unlocking a wealth of information about the hailstone’s journey. "All that information can tell you a wonderful story of how the hailstone was growing, but nobody—not until now—was able to tap into that history," explained Bernal Ayala, who is affiliated with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, part of the JANUS Research Group.

Bernal Ayala’s groundbreaking research, conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is a crucial component of a historic initiative aimed at understanding one of the most financially devastating weather phenomena. Scientists involved in this effort hope their findings will lead to enhanced protection for lives and property from the destructive force of hail, which can inflict severe damage on roofs, decimate agricultural crops, and mar vehicles.

The economic toll of severe thunderstorms has escalated dramatically, with annual losses nationwide exceeding $50 billion between 2023 and 2025, according to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. This figure represents more than double the losses recorded just a decade prior. Notably, hail accounts for a substantial portion of this damage, contributing between 60% and 80% of the total financial impact. In Colorado, a state frequently targeted by hailstorms, hail—rather than wildfire—is the primary driver behind escalating insurance premiums. Projections indicate that larger and more damaging hailstones are likely to become increasingly prevalent as climate change intensifies. "It’s going to just keep getting costlier and costlier," Bernal Ayala stated, underscoring the urgency of this research.

Even fundamental questions about hail formation and behavior have historically been challenging to investigate. However, a significant resurgence in dedicated research, including the first major U.S. field campaign focused on hail in over four decades, promises to change this landscape. The "In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail In the Plains" (ICECHIP) initiative aims to refine weather forecasting models, enable more precise warnings, and equip communities with better preparedness strategies. In 2024, the National Science Foundation allocated $11 million to support this vital project, a funding commitment made just before significant budget reductions impacted the foundation in 2025.

Over a six-week period in the spring of 2025, approximately 100 scientists and university students embarked on an ambitious mission, tracking hailstorms across the Central Plains and the Front Range of Colorado, extending from the Canadian to the Mexican borders. They utilized advanced radar trucks to monitor storm development and deployed drones to capture aerial imagery. Researchers meticulously photographed hailstones using high-speed cameras, measured their impact with a specialized instrument called a disdrometer, and recorded their distribution and size by analyzing imprints left on foam pads. The team also collected hail samples in specialized funnels and subjected them to crush tests to assess their strength. Furthermore, scientists from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology deployed golf ball-sized sensors via balloons into storm systems. Once airborne, these hail-like probes gathered data on their velocity and the rate of ice accretion, while an integrated microphone recorded the impact of water droplets and hailstones. "This has really been the first time where we’ve been able to do a real comprehensive look at hail on the ground, hail aloft, the storm itself, the environment around the storm—just everything all at once," remarked Becky Adams-Selin, the lead investigator for ICECHIP and a principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.

The collected samples from the ICECHIP experiment were carefully packed into 26 cooler-sized boxes and transported to NCAR. This institution, a globally recognized center for atmospheric and climate research, has a long history of studying hail, dating back to major campaigns in the 1970s when U.S. researchers investigated Soviet claims of hail suppression technology. The availability of specialized facilities at NCAR is critical, as researchers note there is no comparable laboratory in the United States for such work, with a walk-in freezer from a fast-food restaurant reportedly serving as a backup storage solution for the ICECHIP samples.

However, the future of NCAR itself has become uncertain. In late 2025, the Trump administration announced plans to dissolve the center and relocate its operations. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages NCAR, filed a lawsuit against the administration in March, alleging that NCAR is being targeted as retaliation for Colorado’s adherence to its mail-in voting system and due to Governor Jared Polis’s initial refusal to release Tina Peters, a former Mesa County clerk implicated in election security breaches. In June, a federal judge issued a temporary injunction blocking the White House’s attempt to dismantle NCAR, with the government mandated to respond to the lawsuit by September 30. Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, emphasized the profound impact of such a loss, stating, "I can’t even quantify the impact that it would have to our community if we lost NCAR. They are the beating heart."

Previous research has consistently pointed to the influence of climate change on hail phenomena. Warmer global temperatures may lead to the melting of smaller hailstones before they reach the ground. Conversely, these warmer conditions can also fuel more powerful updrafts within thunderstorms, which can suspend hailstones in the atmosphere for extended periods, allowing them to grow larger. This dynamic is expected to increase the frequency of the most damaging hail events. In 2023, a record-breaking hailstone, measuring over 5 inches in diameter, was recovered in Yuma County, Colorado. That same year, Colorado documented 176 reports of hail measuring 2 inches or greater, significantly surpassing the previous record of 91 reports set in 2018, according to data from the Colorado Climate Center.

Scientists acknowledge the difficulty in disentangling the extent to which increased development in hail-prone regions contributes to the rise in damage, as opposed to an actual increase in the size and frequency of large hail. This phenomenon, where a growing human footprint intersects with hazardous weather, is often referred to as the "expanding bull’s-eye effect." Gensini, a principal investigator for ICECHIP, highlights the rapid development east of the Front Range along Colorado’s Interstate 25 corridor, which has experienced substantial population growth in recent decades. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the population of the Fort Collins metropolitan area alone has doubled since 1990, now exceeding approximately 375,000 residents. This trend of previously rural or open areas becoming densely populated and increasingly vulnerable is occurring across the Western United States, making these areas more expensive targets for hail damage. "Colorado is the poster child for what I expect the next 25 years to look like for hail," Gensini observed.

In response to the escalating threat, Fort Collins became one of the first municipalities to implement hail-specific roofing requirements for new construction and renovations in 2019. Marcus Coldiron, the city’s chief building official, noted that this measure was partly a reaction to the substantial volume of discarded shingles and roofing materials sent to landfills following a devastating hailstorm in 2018. While the long-term effectiveness of these requirements remains to be fully assessed, Coldiron reported a decrease in permits issued for roof replacements and a corresponding reduction in shingles destined for landfills. However, Fort Collins has not yet experienced another hailstorm of the same severity as the 2018 event. Consequently, a growing number of communities along the Front Range have incorporated impact-resistant shingles into their building codes, and Colorado legislators recently enacted a law offering grants to residents who install more resilient roofing materials.

Researchers involved in ICECHIP are also investigating how building materials can be improved to better withstand the increasingly common billion-dollar losses stemming from single hailstorm events. "The dollars are simply piling up so fast," commented Ian Giammanco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, a key partner in the ICECHIP project. "We’re still trying to understand how do we get the best materials onto roofs, onto people’s homes, onto businesses to actually start shaving off these losses."