Within a specialized cold laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, maintained at a frigid minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 20 degrees Celsius), atmospheric researcher Anthony Bernal Ayala meticulously slices through hailstones with a band saw, revealing intricate layers of ice that mirror the growth rings of a tree. These frozen strata—distinguished by their clarity or opacity, and varying thickness—provide a detailed chronicle of the conditions under which each hailstone formed. A clear layer signifies slow freezing, allowing water molecules to arrange themselves in an orderly fashion, while a cloudy layer indicates rapid freezing, trapping tiny air bubbles and creating a more opaque appearance. Bernal Ayala then undertakes a detailed analysis of the crystalline structures, embedded particles, and isotopic signatures preserved within these layers. "All that information can tell you a wonderful story of how the hailstone was growing, but nobody—not until now—was able to tap into that history," Bernal Ayala explained, affiliated with Atmospheric and Environmental Research, part of the JANUS Research Group.

Bernal Ayala’s groundbreaking research, conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is a critical component of a significant scientific endeavor aimed at understanding one of the most financially devastating weather phenomena. The ultimate goal of these investigations is to enhance our ability to protect lives and property from the destructive force of hailstones, which can cause extensive damage to roofs, decimate agricultural crops, and leave vehicles pockmarked.

The economic toll of severe thunderstorms has been alarmingly on the rise. According to data from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety, annual losses nationwide from these events exceeded $50 billion in the period from 2023 to 2025, more than doubling the figures from just a decade prior. Hail alone is responsible for a substantial 60 to 80% of this immense damage. In Colorado, a state frequently subjected to severe hail events, this form of precipitation—rather than wildfires—is the primary driver of escalating insurance premiums. Compounding these concerns, climate scientists anticipate an increase in the frequency and intensity of larger, more damaging hailstones as global temperatures continue to rise. "It’s going to just keep getting costlier and costlier," Bernal Ayala stated, underscoring the urgency of this research.

Even fundamental questions about hail formation and behavior have historically proven challenging to address. However, a long-awaited revitalization of research, including the first major U.S. field campaign dedicated to hail study in over four decades, promises to shed new light on this formidable weather hazard. The ICECHIP project—an acronym for "In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail In the Plains"—is designed to significantly improve weather forecasting accuracy, enable more precise warnings, and empower communities to better prepare for and mitigate hail-related impacts. The initiative received substantial backing, securing $11 million in funding from the National Science Foundation in 2024, prior to significant budget reductions impacting the foundation in 2025.

For a dedicated six-week period during the spring of 2025, approximately 100 scientists and university students embarked on an ambitious pursuit, tracking hailstorms across the vast expanse of the Central Plains and the Front Range, stretching from the Canadian border to the Mexican border. Their arsenal included advanced radar trucks for real-time storm tracking and drones equipped for aerial reconnaissance. The research team employed high-speed cameras to capture the dynamics of falling hail, utilized a specialized instrument called a disdrometer to measure impact forces, and recorded hail distribution and size by analyzing imprints left on precisely laid foam pads. Hail samples were collected using specialized funnels, and subsequently, their structural integrity was tested by crushing them. International collaboration was also a key feature, with scientists from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology deploying golf ball-sized, instrumented probes via balloons into the heart of storms. These probes gathered critical data on their descent velocity and the growth of ice upon their surfaces, while an integrated microphone captured the acoustic signatures of water droplets and hailstones impacting the sensors. "This has really been the first time where we’ve been able to do a real comprehensive look at hail on the ground, hail aloft, the storm itself, the environment around the storm—just everything all at once," remarked Becky Adams-Selin, the lead investigator for ICECHIP and a principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, JANUS Research Group.

The collected samples from ICECHIP were carefully packed into 26 cooler-sized boxes and transported to NCAR, a globally recognized center for atmospheric and climate research with a long history of studying hail. In fact, one of NCAR’s most significant past campaigns, conducted in the 1970s, involved investigating Soviet claims of weather modification capabilities, specifically their ability to suppress hail. Researchers emphasize that there is no other U.S. laboratory comparable to NCAR for this type of specialized work; as a backup plan for storing the ICECHIP samples, researchers had even arranged to use a walk-in freezer from a fast-food restaurant, highlighting the critical need for dedicated facilities.

However, the future of NCAR itself has become uncertain. In late 2025, the Trump administration announced its intention to dissolve the center and transfer its operations out of state. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages NCAR, responded by filing a lawsuit against the administration in March, alleging that the move is politically motivated, intended to retaliate against Colorado for maintaining its mail-in voting system and for Governor Jared Polis’s initial refusal to release former Mesa County clerk Tina Peters, who was imprisoned for election security breaches and undermining election integrity. In June, a federal judge issued a temporary injunction blocking the White House from dismantling NCAR, and the government has a deadline of September 30 to formally respond to the lawsuit. "I can’t even quantify the impact that it would have to our community if we lost NCAR. They are the beating heart," stated Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, emphasizing the profound significance of NCAR to the scientific community.

Prior research has consistently predicted that climate change will exert a significant influence on hail phenomena. While warmer ambient temperatures might lead to the melting of smaller hailstones before they reach the ground, these same conditions can also fuel more powerful updrafts within thunderstorms. These intensified updrafts can sustain hailstones aloft for longer durations, allowing them to grow to larger sizes and ultimately increasing the likelihood of the most damaging hail events. A record-breaking hailstone, measuring over 5 inches in diameter, was recovered in Yuma County, Colorado, in 2023. That same year, Colorado recorded 176 reports of hail measuring 2 inches or greater, a figure that more than doubled the previous record of 91 reports set in 2018, according to data from the Colorado Climate Center.

Scientists acknowledge the difficulty in disentangling the precise contribution of increased large hail events versus the expanded development in areas prone to hail. The correlation between a growing human presence and escalating insured losses has been characterized as the "expanding bull’s-eye effect." Gensini, who also serves as a principal investigator for ICECHIP, points to the rapid development east of the Front Range, particularly along Colorado’s Interstate 25 corridor, which has experienced explosive population growth in recent decades. The Fort Collins metropolitan area alone has seen its population double since 1990, now comprising approximately 375,000 residents, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This pattern of increased development in previously rural or open areas is a widespread trend across the Western United States, transforming these regions into increasingly densely populated and valuable targets for hail damage. "Colorado is the poster child for what I expect the next 25 years to look like for hail," Gensini remarked, projecting a concerning future for the region.

In response to the escalating threat, Fort Collins became one of the pioneering cities to implement hail-specific roofing requirements for new construction and renovation projects in 2019. Marcus Coldiron, the city’s chief building official, indicated that this measure was largely prompted by the significant volume of discarded shingles and roofing materials sent to landfills following a catastrophic hailstorm in 2018. While the long-term efficacy of these requirements is still under evaluation, Coldiron reported a reduction in permits issued for roof replacements and a corresponding decrease in shingles destined for landfills. However, it is important to note that Fort Collins has not experienced a hailstorm of the same devastating magnitude as the 2018 event since the implementation of these codes. A growing number of communities along the Front Range have since incorporated impact-resistant shingles into their building codes, and Colorado legislators have recently enacted legislation providing grants to residents who invest in more resilient roofing solutions.

The ICECHIP research team is also actively investigating methods to enhance building materials, especially as billion-dollar losses from single storm events become increasingly common. "The dollars are simply piling up so fast," observed Ian Giammanco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety and a key partner in the ICECHIP project. "We’re still trying to understand how do we get the best materials onto roofs, onto people’s homes, onto businesses to actually start shaving off these losses."