In a specialized cold laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, where temperatures are maintained at a frigid minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 20 degrees Celsius), atmospheric researcher Anthony Bernal Ayala meticulously slices hailstones with a band saw, revealing intricate layers of icy growth akin to the growth rings of a tree. These frozen strata, characterized by variations in clarity and thickness, offer invaluable insights into the atmospheric conditions present during the hailstone’s formation: a clear layer signifies slow freezing, indicating a period of stable conditions, while a cloudy layer suggests rapid freezing, which traps air bubbles. Bernal Ayala then delves into the analysis of the crystalline structures, embedded particles, and isotopic signatures preserved within these layers, unlocking a historical record previously inaccessible. "All that information can tell you a wonderful story of how the hailstone was growing, but nobody—not until now—was able to tap into that history," stated Bernal Ayala, an employee of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, part of the JANUS Research Group.

Bernal Ayala’s pioneering research, conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), is a critical component of a significant initiative aimed at understanding one of the most financially devastating weather phenomena. The ultimate goal of these researchers is to develop strategies that can better protect lives and property from the destructive impact of hailstones, which can wreak havoc on infrastructure, decimate agricultural yields, and cause extensive damage to vehicles.

The economic toll of severe thunderstorms has escalated dramatically in recent years, with annual losses nationwide exceeding $50 billion between 2023 and 2025, according to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. This figure represents more than double the losses recorded just a decade prior, highlighting a disturbing trend of increasing meteorological damage. Hail is identified as the primary culprit behind a substantial portion of this damage, accounting for an estimated 60 to 80 percent of the total economic losses.

In Colorado, a state frequently impacted by severe hail events and often referred to as part of "Hail Alley," hail is now the leading factor driving up insurance premiums, even surpassing the impact of wildfires. Projections indicate that the frequency and intensity of larger, more damaging hailstones are likely to increase as a consequence of climate change. "It’s going to just keep getting costlier and costlier," Bernal Ayala cautioned, underscoring the urgency of this research.

Even fundamental questions about hail formation and behavior have historically been challenging to investigate. However, a long-awaited resurgence in dedicated research, including the first major U.S. field campaign focused on hail in over four decades, is poised to significantly advance our understanding. The "In-situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail In the Plains," or ICECHIP, project aims to refine weather forecasting models, enhance the precision of warning systems, and equip communities with better preparedness strategies. This ambitious endeavor received a substantial $11 million in funding from the National Science Foundation in 2024, a critical investment made shortly before significant budget reductions were implemented across the foundation in 2025.

For a dedicated six-week period in the spring of 2025, approximately 100 scientists and university students embarked on an extensive mission to track hailstorms across the Central Plains and the Front Range of Colorado, extending their reach from the Canadian to the Mexican borders. Equipped with advanced radar trucks for storm tracking and drones for aerial surveillance, the research teams meticulously documented hail events. They employed high-speed cameras to capture detailed images of falling hail, utilized a specialized instrument known as a disdrometer to measure impact characteristics, recorded hail distribution and size by analyzing imprints left on foam pads, and collected samples using specialized funnels for further laboratory analysis, including tests on their structural integrity. Complementing these efforts, scientists from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology deployed golf ball-sized sensors via balloons into storm systems. These airborne probes gathered crucial data on their velocity, the rate of ice accumulation, and even recorded the acoustic signatures of water droplets and hailstones impacting their surfaces through an integrated microphone.

"This has really been the first time where we’ve been able to do a real comprehensive look at hail on the ground, hail aloft, the storm itself, the environment around the storm—just everything all at once," stated Becky Adams-Selin, the lead investigator for ICECHIP and a principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, JANUS Research Group. This holistic approach promises to yield unprecedented data for understanding the complex dynamics of hail formation and impact.

The valuable samples collected during the ICECHIP campaign, amounting to 26 cooler-sized boxes, were transported to NCAR. This institution stands as a globally recognized hub for atmospheric and climate research, with a long history of studying hail. Notably, one of NCAR’s earlier significant hail research initiatives in the 1970s investigated Soviet claims regarding hail suppression technologies. The availability of such specialized facilities at NCAR is crucial, as researchers note that there is no comparable laboratory in the United States, with the backup plan for storing ICECHIP’s samples involving the use of a walk-in freezer typically found in fast-food restaurants.

However, the future of NCAR itself is currently facing considerable uncertainty. In late 2025, the Trump administration announced its intention to dissolve the center and transfer its operations out of state. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), which manages NCAR, responded by filing a lawsuit against the administration in March, alleging that NCAR is being targeted as retaliation against Colorado for maintaining its mail-in voting system and due to Governor Jared Polis’s initial refusal to extradite former Mesa County clerk Tina Peters, who faced charges related to election security breaches and undermining election integrity. In June, a federal judge issued a temporary injunction preventing the White House from dismantling NCAR, with the government mandated to respond to the lawsuit by September 30. "I can’t even quantify the impact that it would have to our community if we lost NCAR," stated Victor Gensini, professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, emphasizing NCAR’s vital role. "They are the beating heart."

Previous scientific research has consistently predicted a significant impact of climate change on hail phenomena. Warmer global temperatures could lead to the melting of smaller hailstones before they reach the ground, but they also have the potential to fuel stronger updrafts within thunderstorms. These intensified updrafts can suspend hailstones in the atmosphere for extended periods, allowing them to grow larger and increasing the likelihood of the most destructive hail events. This prediction is being borne out by recent observations.

In 2023, a record-breaking hailstone was recovered in Yuma County, Colorado, measuring over 5 inches in diameter. That same year, Colorado recorded an unprecedented 176 reports of hail measuring 2 inches or greater, significantly surpassing the previous record of 91 reports set in 2018, according to data from the Colorado Climate Center. Scientists acknowledge the difficulty in disentangling the extent to which the rise in damage is attributable to an increase in large hail versus the amplified development in areas prone to hail. This phenomenon, where a growing human footprint intersects with increased insured losses, has been termed the "expanding bull’s-eye effect."

Gensini, who also serves as a principal investigator for ICECHIP, points to the rapid development occurring east of the Front Range, particularly along Colorado’s Interstate 25 corridor, which has experienced explosive population growth in recent decades. The Fort Collins metropolitan area alone has seen its population double since 1990, now home to approximately 375,000 residents, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. This pattern of increasing urbanization is not confined to Colorado; it is a widespread trend across the Western United States, where formerly rural or open landscapes are becoming densely populated, transforming them into increasingly valuable and vulnerable targets for hail damage. "Colorado is the poster child for what I expect the next 25 years to look like for hail," Gensini remarked, highlighting the state’s role as a bellwether for future hail impacts.

In response to these escalating threats, Fort Collins became one of the earliest municipalities to implement hail-specific roofing requirements for new construction and renovations in 2019. Marcus Coldiron, the city’s chief building official, explained that this initiative was partly a reaction to the substantial volume of damaged shingles and roofing materials sent to landfills following a catastrophic hailstorm in 2018. While the efficacy of these regulations is still under evaluation, Coldiron reported a decrease in permits issued for roof replacements and a reduction in shingle disposal, suggesting a positive impact. However, it is important to note that Fort Collins has not experienced a hailstorm of the same severity as the 2018 event since the implementation of these measures. Consequently, a growing number of communities along the Front Range are now incorporating impact-resistant shingles into their building codes. Furthermore, Colorado legislators recently enacted a law to provide grants to residents who install more resilient roofing materials.

Researchers involved in the ICECHIP project are also actively investigating how to improve building materials to better withstand the increasing frequency of billion-dollar losses from single storm events. "The dollars are simply piling up so fast," stated Ian Giammanco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety and a key partner in the ICECHIP initiative. "We’re still trying to understand how do we get the best materials onto roofs, onto people’s homes, onto businesses to actually start shaving off these losses." The collaborative efforts of scientists like Bernal Ayala and Giammanco, coupled with advancements in building codes and materials science, are crucial steps in mitigating the growing economic and societal impacts of severe weather events.